{ "meta": { "id": "consumer-health-intelligence", "title": "Consumer Health Intelligence", "subtitle": "The Living Truth Layer", "version": "1.0.0" }, "actors": {}, "slides": [ { "type": "title", "id": "title" }, { "type": "hook", "id": "hook", "line": "Your sources contradict each other.", "subline": "And you have no way to weigh them." }, { "type": "code", "id": "drift-doctor", "title": "Source 1: Your doctor", "code": "\"Well-tolerated. Nausea is common but transient.\"\n\n// Confidence: high (MD, treating physician)\n// Basis: prescribing guidelines, clinical experience\n// What's missing: doesn't see Reddit, doesn't see FAERS\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "drift-fda", "title": "Source 2: The FDA label", "code": "WARNING: Thyroid C-cell tumors (boxed warning)\n\nAdverse reactions:\n - Nausea (44%)\n - Diarrhea (30%)\n - Vomiting (24%)\n\n// No mention of gastroparesis (yet).\n// Label last updated: 2021.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "drift-reddit", "title": "Source 3: Reddit (1.2M members)", "code": "r/Ozempic - sorted by top, past month:\n\n\"Ozempic face is real. I look 10 years older.\" [2.1k upvotes]\n\"Month 3: can't eat, stomach won't empty\" [1.8k upvotes]\n\"Hair is falling out in clumps\" [1.4k upvotes]\n\"Lost 40 lbs, feel amazing, life changed\" [947 upvotes]\n\n// 4 posts. 4 different realities.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "drift-tiktok", "title": "Source 4: TikTok (4M views)", "code": "@healthinfluencer:\n\"Ozempic gave me stomach paralysis.\n I was in the ER for 3 days.\"\n\n4.2M views | 340K likes | 12K comments\n\n// One person's experience.\n// Presented as universal truth.\n// Engagement = visibility, not validity.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "drift-nejm", "title": "Source 5: NEJM meta-analysis", "code": "// Pooled analysis, n = 14,847\n// Design: randomized controlled trials\n\nResult: \"No statistically significant increase\n in gastroparesis incidence vs placebo\"\n\n// p = 0.23, CI crosses 1.0\n// The gold standard says: no signal.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "drift-faers", "title": "Source 6: FDA Adverse Event Reports", "code": "FAERS query: semaglutide + gastroparesis\n\nTotal reports: 8,547\nSerious: 3,201\nHospitalizations: 1,894\nTrend: increasing (2022-2024)\n\n// Self-reported + unverified.\n// But 8,547 reports is a signal.\n" }, { "type": "hook", "id": "drift-question", "line": "Seven sources. Seven answers.", "subline": "You make your decision based on whichever one you saw last." }, { "type": "code", "id": "spiral", "title": "The same problem, everywhere", "code": "// Gastroparesis:\nDoctor: \"Rare\"\nFDA: (not on label)\nReddit: \"It happened to me\" (x 4,200)\nTikTok: \"It's an epidemic\" (12M views)\nNEJM: \"No significant signal\"\nFAERS: 8,547 reports\n\n// Hair loss:\nClinical trials: not studied\nReddit: 1,847 posts\nClinical evidence: zero\n\n// Muscle loss:\nPhase III: \"~40% of weight lost is lean mass\"\nReddit: \"My legs are wasting away\"\nTrainers: \"Just lift weights\"\n" }, { "type": "hook", "id": "spiral-insight", "line": "This is the vaccine problem.", "subline": "Not misinformation. The absence of a system that can hold all claims and show you the shape of the evidence." }, { "type": "code", "id": "catastrophe", "title": "The Catastrophe", "code": "// June 2023: She starts Semaglutide.\n// Her research: doctor + Google + a few Reddit posts.\n// Gastroparesis wasn't on the FDA label.\n//\n// January 2024: FDA updates the label.\n// Intestinal obstruction warning added.\n//\n// Reddit had flagged this a year earlier.\n// FAERS reports were accumulating for two years.\n//\n// Nobody told her. Google doesn't send updates.\n// Her doctor's office doesn't track label changes.\n// The truth changed. Her information didn't.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "catastrophe-pattern", "title": "The pattern repeats", "code": "// COVID vaccines, 2021:\n// April: \"No myocarditis signal\"\n// June: VAERS reports accumulating\n// July: CDC acknowledges elevated risk in young males\n//\n// Millions of decisions made between April and July\n// based on information that was about to change.\n//\n// Not because anyone lied.\n// Because no system could show:\n// \"Here is what we know, at each level,\n// and here is what changed since you last looked.\"\n" }, { "type": "hook", "id": "fix-intro", "line": "What if every source had a weight?", "subline": "And the disagreement was the answer." }, { "type": "code", "id": "fix-tiers", "title": "Source-class hierarchy", "code": "// Not all sources are equal. Make it structural.\n\nTier 0: Regulatory action weight: 1.0 decay: never\nTier 1: RCTs, meta-analyses weight: 0.9 decay: 2 years\nTier 2: Observational studies weight: 0.7 decay: 1 year\nTier 3: Pharmacovigilance weight: 0.5 decay: 18 months\nTier 4: Clinician case reports weight: 0.4 decay: 6 months\nTier 5: Patient community weight: 0.2 decay: 3 months\nTier 6: Media, influencers weight: 0.1 decay: 30 days\n\n// A million TikTok posts cannot outvote one FDA action.\n// But they can signal that something is happening.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "fix-assert", "title": "Store claims with provenance", "code": "// Clinical evidence enters with full metadata\nepisteme.assert({\n subject: \"semaglutide/adverse-effects/gastroparesis\",\n predicate: \"risk_level\",\n value: \"No statistically significant increase\",\n source_class: \"tier-1\",\n source: {\n type: \"meta-analysis\",\n journal: \"NEJM\",\n sample_size: 14847\n },\n confidence: 0.92\n});\n\n// Patient report enters the same graph\nepisteme.assert({\n subject: \"semaglutide/adverse-effects/gastroparesis\",\n predicate: \"risk_level\",\n value: \"Experienced severe gastroparesis after 3 months\",\n source_class: \"tier-5\",\n source: { platform: \"reddit\", upvotes: 847 },\n confidence: 0.3\n});\n\n// Both coexist. Neither overwrites. But they are not equal.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "fix-query", "title": "Query returns layers, not a single answer", "code": "episteme.query({\n subject: \"semaglutide/adverse-effects/gastroparesis\",\n lens: \"layered-consensus\"\n});\n\n// Returns:\n{\n regulatory: \"Added to label Jan 2024\",\n clinical_evidence: \"No signal in Phase III (conflict: 0.34)\",\n pharmacovigilance: \"8,547 FAERS reports, trend: increasing\",\n patient_community: \"Widely reported, cluster size: 4,200\",\n\n overall_conflict: 0.72,\n summary: \"Trials show low incidence. Post-marketing and\n patient reports show higher rates. FDA added\n to label January 2024.\"\n}\n\n// Not \"yes\" or \"no\". The shape of the evidence.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "escalation", "title": "Anecdotal signal detection", "code": "// The Gardener monitors Tier 5 clusters.\n// When density crosses threshold:\n\nepisteme.assert({\n subject: \"semaglutide/adverse-effects/hair-loss\",\n predicate: \"escalation_signal\",\n value: \"Anecdotal cluster detected\",\n source_class: \"meta\",\n meta: {\n tier_5_count: 1847,\n growth_rate: \"312/month\",\n tier_1_count: 0, // no clinical evidence exists\n clinical_gap: true\n },\n lifecycle: \"under-review\"\n});\n\n// Does NOT claim hair loss is real.\n// Claims: \"people are reporting this, and nobody has studied it.\"\n// The gap is the signal.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "guidance-change", "title": "What changed since you last looked", "code": "// FDA updates the label. Epoch shifts.\nepisteme.epoch.supersede({\n old_epoch: \"semaglutide-label-pre-2024\",\n new_epoch: \"semaglutide-label-2024-01\",\n reason: \"Intestinal obstruction warning added\"\n});\n\n// Consumer returns 3 months later:\nepisteme.query({\n subject: \"semaglutide/adverse-effects\",\n lens: \"layered-consensus\",\n since: \"2023-10-01\" // their last visit\n});\n\n// Returns:\n{\n changes: [{\n date: \"2024-01-12\",\n type: \"regulatory\",\n change: \"Intestinal obstruction added to warnings\"\n }],\n prior_assertions_affected: 12\n}\n\n// Not just today's answer. What changed.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "time-travel", "title": "What was known when you decided?", "code": "// \"I started Semaglutide in June 2023.\n// What were the known risks at that time?\"\n\nepisteme.query({\n subject: \"semaglutide/adverse-effects\",\n lens: \"layered-consensus\",\n as_of: \"2023-06-15\"\n});\n\n// Returns the June 2023 snapshot:\n{\n regulatory: \"Boxed warning: thyroid. No GI obstruction.\",\n clinical: \"Nausea common, no gastroparesis signal\",\n patient: \"Growing reports (cluster size: 340)\",\n escalation: \"not yet triggered (threshold: 500)\"\n}\n\n// Your decision was reasonable given available evidence.\n// The record proves it.\n" }, { "type": "code", "id": "disagreement", "title": "The disagreement dashboard", "code": "episteme.query({\n subject: \"semaglutide\",\n lens: \"skeptic\",\n scope: \"adverse-effects\"\n});\n\n// Returns:\nresolved: [\n { topic: \"nausea\", conflict: 0.08, \"all tiers agree\" }\n]\n\nactive_disagreement: [\n { topic: \"gastroparesis\", conflict: 0.72,\n clinical: \"Low incidence\",\n faers: \"8,547 reports\",\n patients: \"Widely reported\" }\n]\n\nemerging_signal: [\n { topic: \"hair loss\",\n clinical_evidence: \"none\",\n patient_reports: 1847,\n status: \"under-review\" }\n]\n\n// Settled. Contested. Emerging.\n// Honest answers, not false certainty.\n" }, { "type": "vision", "id": "vision", "title": "Episteme", "points": [ "Source-class hierarchy. Not all claims are equal.", "Anecdotal signals surfaced without false authority.", "Guidance changes propagated, not buried.", "Time travel to the evidence at any moment." ], "tagline": "Git for Truth" } ] }